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Many economists incorrectly state that pension plans first emerged in Europe in the 19th century, but actually, pension plans go back to the 1300’s in England and even back to 300 BC in Greece for military service
The first modern day pension was actually created in England in 1908 with the first nationwide pension following in 1948 just after WW2
The problem is, these pension funds were developed under very different living conditions from today in terms of: life expectancy, working age & population growth
The way that the most risky (but not all) modern day pension schemes work now is quite simple. And if you understand how a Ponzi scheme works, then you’re not too far off. Those who are working - GIVE to the scheme, and those who are retired RECEIVE from the scheme, this is a form of a Ponzi scheme no matter how you dress it up
So here’s the main problems that almost no one is talking about…
Pension plans globally are heavily invested in risky assets. This is how they are able to get such high returns. The fixed-income aspect has been steadily declining for years
And remember, the more profit the fund makes, the more the asset managers make in commission.
Over 10,000 baby boomers retire every day
By 2030, all baby boomers will be over the age of 65, Meaning that between now and 2030, the youngest baby boomers will be selling their assets in a period of economic stagnation or worse, economic recession, achieving lower prices upon asset sales
In the 1950s, there were 7 workers to support every 1 retiree receiving a pension: 7:1 / 2000s 5:1 / 2030: 2:1 / 2050: 1.5:1 - However the program would be bankrupt long before 2050 came around
In most western Nations, estimates are that the pension programs will go bankrupt between 2025-2032
In the United States, the public pension system lost $1 trillion due to the lockdowns in March 2020
Many state and local pensions were already facing a $4.1 trillion shortfall. This equates to an unfunded public liability of $32k per household!
In The United Kingdom, a Government review said: “without any additional support in addition to National Insurance Contributions, the Fund balance will fall rapidly to exhaustion in around 2032.”
If we’re 30-40% underfunded right now, what do you think will happen when we move into this next financial crash? It will probably go to 60-70% underfunded
When it comes to fund managers, they are charging excessive fees and the Government officials are just agreeing to it, because it’s not their money!
The labour Force participation rate for people over sixty-five is going up. Boomers are now competing with younger people for jobs
So what are the solutions to this enormous problem then?
Well, the obvious mathematical solution is also Unthinkable. You reduce the population of older people, a complete non-starter. Which leads us on to three possible solutions:
1. Allow a mass influx of young working age people from poorer nations who would be willing to do the hard jobs, thereby paying into the pension programs. I certainly don’t think this is a good idea, but this could explain why many Western governments are allowing so much immigration into their countries right now.
2. Increase the state pension age, however, this is discrimination against the poorest in society, who live up to 10 years shorter than the richest in society
3. Stop allowing lobbyists to negotiate final salary pensions such as what happens in California and New York, because this drains the fund for future generations.
To conclude then, none of the solutions here are going to work - meaning that these pension funds are a ticking time bomb, just waiting to implode. There simply aren’t enough workers
This video is for entertainment purposes ONLY & designed to help your thinking, not direct it. These videos shall NOT be construed as tax, legal or financial advice and may be outdated or inaccurate; all decisions made as a result of viewing are yours alone.
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