Human overpopulation (or human population overshoot) is the concept of a human population becoming too large to be sustained by its environment in the long term. The idea is usually discussed in the context of world population, though it may also concern regions. Human population growth has increased in recent centuries due to medical advancements and improved agricultural productivity. Those concerned by this trend argue that it results in a level of resource consumption which exceeds the environment’s carrying capacity, leading to population overshoot. The concept is often discussed in relation to other population concerns such as demographic push and depopulation, as well as in relation to resource depletion and the human impact on the environment.
Discussion of overpopulation follow a similar line of inquiry as Malthusianism and its Malthusian catastrophe, a hypothetical event where population exceeds agricultural capacity, causing famine or war over resources, resulting in poverty and depopulation.
Recent discussion of overpopulation was popularized by Paul Ehrlich in his 1968 book The Population Bomb. Ehrlich described overpopulation as a function of overconsumption, arguing that overpopulation should be defined by a population being unable to sustain itself without depleting non-renewable resources. Modern proponents of the concept have suggested a link between overpopulation and human-caused environmental issues such as global warming and biodiversity loss, and suggest population planning strategies.
The concept of overpopulation is controversial. Demographic projections suggest that population growth will stabilise in the 21st century, and many experts believe that global resources can meet this increased demand, suggesting a global overpopulation scenario is unlikely. Critics highlight how attempts to blame environmental issues on overpopulation tend to oversimplify complex social or economic systems, or place blame on developing countries and poor populations—reinscribing colonial or racist assumptions. These issues often lead human overpopulation arguments to be central features of ecofascist ideologies and rhetoric. For these reasons, critics of overpopulation suggest overconsumption be treated as an issue separate from population growth.
Concerns about population size or density have a long history: Tertullian, a resident of the city of Carthage in the second century CE, criticized population at the time saying "Our numbers are burdensome to the world, which can hardly support us… In very deed, pestilence, and famine, and wars, and earthquakes have to be regarded as a remedy for nations, as the means of pruning the luxuriance of the human race." Despite these concerns, scholars have not found historic societies which have collapsed because of overpopulation or overconsumption. This could be because, prior to modern medicine, infectious diseases prevented populations from growing too large.
By the beginning of the 19th century, intellectuals such as Thomas Malthus predicted that humankind would outgrow its available resources because a finite amount of land would be incapable of supporting a population with limitless potential for increase. During the 19th century, Malthus’ work, particularly An Essay on the Principle of Population, was often interpreted in a way that blamed the poor alone for their condition and helping them was said to worsen conditions in the long run. This resulted, for example, in the English poor laws of 1834 and a hesitating response to the Irish Great Famine of 1845-52
Paul R. Ehrlich’s book The Population Bomb became a bestseller upon its release in 1968, creating renewed interest in overpopulation. The book predicted population growth would lead to famine, societal collapse, and other social, environmental and economic strife in the coming decades, and advocated for policies to curb it. The idea of overpopulation was also a topic of some works of English-language science fiction and dystopian fiction during the latter part of the 1960s. Human population and family planning policies were adopted by some nations in the late 20th century in an effort to curb population growth, including in China and India.
As the profile of environmental issues facing humanity increased during the end of the 20th century, some have looked to population growth as a root cause. In 2017, more than one-third of 50 Nobel prize-winning scientists surveyed by the Times Higher Education at the Lindau Nobel Laureate Meetings said that human overpopulation and environmental degradation are the two greatest threats facing mankind. In November that same year, a statement by 15,364 scientists from 184 countries indicated that rapid human population growth is "a primary driver behind many ecological and even societal threats." In 2019, a warning on climate change signed by 11,000 scientists from 153 nations.
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